Workforce projection tools

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These changes will impact the growth of the U. The growth of the labor force is directly related to the growth of the population and changes in the labor force participation rate. A significant part of the changes in labor force growth results from changes in the population. The labor force participation rate has declined substantially since its peak in , for both demographic and economic reasons.

In this Spotlight, we look at projected long-term trends in the growth, size, and composition of the labor force. In addition, assumptions about immigration to the United States, which has a significant impact on population growth, are added to the assumptions about fertility and mortality. Natural increase refers to the difference between the numbers of births and deaths in a population. The share of natural increase in projections of the resident population is declining, while the share of immigration in projections of the resident population is increasing.

In , the share of natural increase and immigration in projections of the resident population will be equal and at 50 percent. This is a result of adding the 34 million difference between The number of people projected to be added as a result of net international migration is nearly twice as much as the natural increase.

The civilian noninstitutional population is projected to grow from million in to million in , an increase of 75 million people. The labor force is projected to increase from million in to million in , an increase of 29 million. Changes in population growth and labor force participation rates over the next several decades will impact the growth of the labor force.

Even though the size of the population will grow, its annual growth rate is projected to slow down in the coming decades. The decline in the growth rate of the U. Growth is expected to get progressively slower for both the population and the labor force over the projected time frame to , much slower than in earlier decades.

From the early s until its peak over —, the overall labor force participation rate increased. From to , the overall participation rate fell by 2.

In the 5 years between —, the overall participation rate fell by another 2. BLS is projecting a continuous decline in the overall participation rates until The men's participation rate has declined since the late s, accelerating after the recession of — Since , the labor force participation rate of men has fallen another 2.

BLS is projecting a further decline in the participation rates of men. Adjustments to the initial estimates of the final demand matrix are made based on research and analysis by industry experts including information pertaining to energy forecasts, existing and expected shares of the domestic output, known changes to trade agreements, expected government political and policy changes, and so forth.

For more information on Final Demand, please see the Handbook of Methods. View Final Demand matrix data. The creation of an input-output model is the next stage in developing BLS projections. By definition, GDP reflects only sales to final purchasers. Intermediate material inputs are not explicitly reflected in the GDP estimates.

An input-output I-O model provides a means to derive an industry-level estimate of the output and employment needed to produce a given level of GDP. Initial estimates of the projected I-O tables are based on historical relationships and the projected final demand tables. Results are then reviewed and revised in order to take into account changing trends in the input patterns, or the way in which goods are produced or services provided by each industry.

When projected values of the "use" and "make" relationships are available, BLS uses the relationships derived by BEA to convert the projection of commodity demand developed in preceding steps into a projection of domestic industry output. For more information on Industry Output, please see the Handbook of Methods.

View Industry Output and Employment data. The next step is to project the industry employment necessary to produce the projected output. To do so, projected output is used in regression analysis to estimate hours worked by industry.

The regression model utilizes industry output, industry wage rate relative to industry output price, and time. From these hours' data, projected wage and salary employment by industry is derived. The ratio of self-employed to total employment is extrapolated using historical data. This ratio, along with the projected level of wage and salary employment is then used to derive the projected number of self-employed and total employment by industry.

Projected average weekly hours and total hours for self-employed also are derived from these data. Implied output per hour labor productivity is calculated for each industry for both the total and for wage and salary employees.